December 2025 Edition

Border Closure and Domestic Trade Performance in Nigeria: A Before and After Closure Analysis

TIJANI Jamiu Olakunle , BOLARINWA SehilatAbike , EMMANUEL Sunday Afolabi

Abstract

Despite the burgeoning literature on the empirical determinants and
outcomes of border closure as an economic measure, a notable gap
remains as these earlier studies have largely overlooked the nuanced,
sector-specific effects of border closure on different dimensions of
domestic trade and price dynamics over time in an emerging economy
such as Nigeria. This study, therefore, investigates the impact of border
closure on domestic trade performance in Nigeria through a before
and-after analysis. The research focused on two primary objectives,
each addressed with specific research questions and corresponding
hypotheses. Employing an ex post facto research design, the study
utilized quarterly secondary data spanning 2016 to 2022, sourced from
the World Development Indicators (WDI, 2022) and the Central Bank
of Nigeria (CBN) Statistical Bulletin (2022). Domestic trade
performance is measured by the contribution of wholesale and retail
trade to GDP and the consumer price index. Data were analysed using
Independent-Samples Mann Whitney U and Independent-Samples t
tests. The findings indicate a significant difference in wholesale and
retail trade performance before and after the border closure (Z = 2.481,
p = .012), as well as a significant change in the consumer price index (t
= 7.396, p = .000). With these results, the study concluded that border
closure significantly influences domestic trade performance in Nigeria.
Consequently, the study recommended that, given the prevailing
inflationary pressures, the Nigerian government should consider easing
border restrictions to promote real economic growth.

Keywords

Border Closure, Consumer Price Index; Domestic Trade Performance, Wholesale and Retail Trade; Nigeria.

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